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کد خبر : 123096
تاریخ انتشار : پنج‌شنبه 25 فوریه 2021 - 14:34
پرونده برجام به حالت آچمز کشیده شده است
اثبات نیوز؛ گروه سیاسی: به دنبال روی کار آمدن دولت جو بایدن در آمریکا و ارسال سیگنال‌هایی مبنی بر بازگشت به برجام از یک سو، و تمایل دولت ایران برای این بازگشت از سوی دیگر، این تصور ایجاد شده است که بعد از بازگشت دو کشور به برجام شرایط به حالت عادی بر می‌گردد. اما
اثبات نیوز؛
گروه سیاسی: به دنبال روی کار آمدن دولت جو بایدن در آمریکا و ارسال سیگنال‌هایی مبنی بر بازگشت به برجام از یک سو، و تمایل دولت ایران برای این بازگشت از سوی دیگر، این تصور ایجاد شده است که بعد از بازگشت دو کشور به برجام شرایط به حالت عادی بر می‌گردد.
اما این تصور با واقعیات فضای حاکم بر روابط دو کشور منطبق نیست چرا که آمریکا هیچگاه همه تحریم‌ها و اهرم‌های فشار علیه ایران را برنخواهد داشت. از زمان مذاکرات منتهی به برجام تا کنون آمریکا با انجام یک بازی حساب شده و دقیق، ایران را در «شرایط آچمزی» قرار داده که «برون رفت کامل» از آن برای ایران غیر ممکن است. در زمان مذاکرات منتهی به برجام آمریکا با طرح و اجرای یک بازی پیچیده، انجام رفتارهای استراتژیک گسترده و در نهایت درگیر کردن ایران در یک «بازی خود آچمزی» بسیار حرفه‌‌ای، اکثریت قریب به اتفاق مهره‌های ایران اعم از اقتصاد، رفاه، روابط خارجی و غیره را در شرایطی قرار داده بود که برون رفت از آن ممکن نبود مگر اینکه یک سری مهره‌ها را فدا کند تا مهره‌های دیگر را نجات دهد. در آن شرایط ایران می‌بایست از طریق مذاکره و امتیازدهی، طوری بازی می‌کرد که با فدا کردن مهره «برنامه هسته‌‌ای»، مهره‌های اقتصاد، رفاه و روابط خارجی را از حالت آچمزی خارج کند که در نهایت همین امر هم صورت گرفت. اما در عمل مهره‌های «اقتصاد» و «روابط خارجی» ایران هیچ گاه از حالت «آچمزی کامل» خارج نشدند، چراکه آمریکا این مهره‌ها را گروگان گرفته بود تا ایران را به دادن امتیازهای دیگری خارج از چارچوب برجام وادار کند، ازجمله در موضوع برنامه موشکی و نفوذ منطقه‌‌ای ایران.
بعد از روی کار آمدن دونالد ترامپ و اتخاذ سیاست «فشار حداکثری» علیه ایران، تهران مجددا در شرایط «آچمزی کامل» قرار گرفته است، به طوری که علاوه بر این که «مهره هسته‌‌ای» خود را فدا کرده، سایر مهره‌های خود از قبیل اقتصاد و روابط خارجی را نیز از دست داده است.در این میان دولت بایدن نیز کاملا از شرایط سخت ایران آگاه است و حاضر نخواهد بود بدون بهره برداری از این «فشار حداکثری» به برجام برگردد. به همین دلیل هم بایدن اعلام کرد که اگر ایران به تعهداتش عمل کند آمریکا هم به برجام باز می‌گردد.
در شطرنج حالتی به نام «زوگزوانگ»وجود دارد که به آن «حرکت اکراهی» هم گفته می‌شود. این حالت زمانی است که نوبت حرکت بازیکن فرا می‌رسد و مجبور است که حرکت کند اما حرکت خوبی برای انجام دادن ندارد، یعنی با هر حرکتی وضعیت او از قبل بدتر می‌شود و به دردسر می‌افتد. به همین دلیل بازیکن دوست ندارد حرکت کند چون قطعا یکی از مهره‌هایش را از دست خواهد داد. از طرف دیگر طبق قوانین بازی، بازیکن نمی‌تواند حرکت نکند، بنابراین تنها راه خروج این است که بازیکن بنا به خواست خود یکی از مهره‌هایش را فدا کند تا شاید بتواند بازی را از این حالت خارج کند. البته خارج شدن یا بدتر شدن وضعیت بازی، کاملا به هنر بازیکن در بازی بستگی دارد.
از این منظر می‌توان گفت که «بازی هسته‌‌ای» ایران به حالت آچمزی کشیده شده و ایران باید از طریق «بازی زوگزوانگ»، حرکتی انجام دهد تا از آچمزی خارج شود. بدین معنی که باید مهره‌‌ای را فدا کند تا بتواند مهره‌های دیگر را نجات دهد.حال این سئوال مطرح می‌شود در شرایطی که ایران در حالت آچمزی قرار دارد چه مهره‌‌ای را می‌تواند برای نجات سایر مهره‌ها فدا کند؟
واقعیت این است تنها مهره‌‌ای که ایران می‌تواند مجددا فدا کند، «مهره هسته‌‌ای» است. به همین دلیل ایران چاره‌‌ای نداشت جز اینکه «غنی سازی ۲۰ درصدی» را از سرگیرد و طرح خروج از «پروتکل الحاقی» را کلید بزند تا از این طریق آمریکا را به واکنش وادار کند تا حرکتی در جهت خواست ایران انجام دهد. بازی ایران تا اینجا دو نتیجه داشته است: اول واکنش اتحادیه اروپا برای برگزاری جلسه غیر رسمی‌اعضای برجام و حضور آمریکا به عنوان ناظر در این جلسه برای گفت وگو در خصوص بازگشت به برجام؛ دوم، سفر دبیر کل آژانس بین المللی انرژی اتمی و درخواست مهلت زمانی سه ماهه برای یافتن راه حل برون رفت از شرایط کنونی.
با این حال، این به معنی اتمام کار نیست چرا که همانطور در ابتدای مطلب بحث شد، آمریکا هیچگاه ایران را به طور کامل از «حالت آچمزی» خارج نخواهد کرد. تجربه برجام به ما نشان داده است که آمریکا در ازای گرفتن امتیازات مهم، اساسی و متعدد از ایران، به صورت لاک پشت وار به آزادسازی مهره‌های «آچمز شده» ایران می‌پردازد و این کار را نیز با مهره‌های کم ارزش‌تر ایران شروع می‌کند تا همچنان مهره‌های با ارزش ایران را در حالت آچمزی نگه دارد تا برای گرفتن امتیازات بیشتر در مراحل بعدی مناقشات میان دو کشور از آنها استفاده کند. تحت این شرایط ایران نیز باید بطور مداوم به دنبال مهره‌های مهمی باشد تا بتواند در مناقشه‌های آتی با آمریکا از آنها برای بازی در حالت «زوگزوانگ» استفاده کند.
اما این تصور با واقعیات فضای حاکم بر روابط دو کشور منطبق نیست چرا که آمریکا هیچگاه همه تحریم‌ها و اهرم‌های فشار علیه ایران را برنخواهد داشت. از زمان مذاکرات منتهی به برجام تا کنون آمریکا با انجام یک بازی حساب شده و دقیق، ایران را در «شرایط آچمزی» قرار داده که «برون رفت کامل» از آن برای ایران غیر ممکن است. در زمان مذاکرات منتهی به برجام آمریکا با طرح و اجرای یک بازی پیچیده، انجام رفتارهای استراتژیک گسترده و در نهایت درگیر کردن ایران در یک «بازی خود آچمزی» بسیار حرفه‌‌ای، اکثریت قریب به اتفاق مهره‌های ایران اعم از اقتصاد، رفاه، روابط خارجی و غیره را در شرایطی قرار داده بود که برون رفت از آن ممکن نبود مگر اینکه یک سری مهره‌ها را فدا کند تا مهره‌های دیگر را نجات دهد. در آن شرایط ایران می‌بایست از طریق مذاکره و امتیازدهی، طوری بازی می‌کرد که با فدا کردن مهره «برنامه هسته‌‌ای»، مهره‌های اقتصاد، رفاه و روابط خارجی را از حالت آچمزی خارج کند که در نهایت همین امر هم صورت گرفت. اما در عمل مهره‌های «اقتصاد» و «روابط خارجی» ایران هیچ گاه از حالت «آچمزی کامل» خارج نشدند، چراکه آمریکا این مهره‌ها را گروگان گرفته بود تا ایران را به دادن امتیازهای دیگری خارج از چارچوب برجام وادار کند، ازجمله در موضوع برنامه موشکی و نفوذ منطقه‌‌ای ایران.
بعد از روی کار آمدن دونالد ترامپ و اتخاذ سیاست «فشار حداکثری» علیه ایران، تهران مجددا در شرایط «آچمزی کامل» قرار گرفته است، به طوری که علاوه بر این که «مهره هسته‌‌ای» خود را فدا کرده، سایر مهره‌های خود از قبیل اقتصاد و روابط خارجی را نیز از دست داده است.در این میان دولت بایدن نیز کاملا از شرایط سخت ایران آگاه است و حاضر نخواهد بود بدون بهره برداری از این «فشار حداکثری» به برجام برگردد. به همین دلیل هم بایدن اعلام کرد که اگر ایران به تعهداتش عمل کند آمریکا هم به برجام باز می‌گردد.
در شطرنج حالتی به نام «زوگزوانگ»وجود دارد که به آن «حرکت اکراهی» هم گفته می‌شود. این حالت زمانی است که نوبت حرکت بازیکن فرا می‌رسد و مجبور است که حرکت کند اما حرکت خوبی برای انجام دادن ندارد، یعنی با هر حرکتی وضعیت او از قبل بدتر می‌شود و به دردسر می‌افتد. به همین دلیل بازیکن دوست ندارد حرکت کند چون قطعا یکی از مهره‌هایش را از دست خواهد داد. از طرف دیگر طبق قوانین بازی، بازیکن نمی‌تواند حرکت نکند، بنابراین تنها راه خروج این است که بازیکن بنا به خواست خود یکی از مهره‌هایش را فدا کند تا شاید بتواند بازی را از این حالت خارج کند. البته خارج شدن یا بدتر شدن وضعیت بازی، کاملا به هنر بازیکن در بازی بستگی دارد.
از این منظر می‌توان گفت که «بازی هسته‌‌ای» ایران به حالت آچمزی کشیده شده و ایران باید از طریق «بازی زوگزوانگ»، حرکتی انجام دهد تا از آچمزی خارج شود. بدین معنی که باید مهره‌‌ای را فدا کند تا بتواند مهره‌های دیگر را نجات دهد.حال این سئوال مطرح می‌شود در شرایطی که ایران در حالت آچمزی قرار دارد چه مهره‌‌ای را می‌تواند برای نجات سایر مهره‌ها فدا کند؟
واقعیت این است تنها مهره‌‌ای که ایران می‌تواند مجددا فدا کند، «مهره هسته‌‌ای» است. به همین دلیل ایران چاره‌‌ای نداشت جز اینکه «غنی سازی ۲۰ درصدی» را از سرگیرد و طرح خروج از «پروتکل الحاقی» را کلید بزند تا از این طریق آمریکا را به واکنش وادار کند تا حرکتی در جهت خواست ایران انجام دهد. بازی ایران تا اینجا دو نتیجه داشته است: اول واکنش اتحادیه اروپا برای برگزاری جلسه غیر رسمی‌اعضای برجام و حضور آمریکا به عنوان ناظر در این جلسه برای گفت وگو در خصوص بازگشت به برجام؛ دوم، سفر دبیر کل آژانس بین المللی انرژی اتمی و درخواست مهلت زمانی سه ماهه برای یافتن راه حل برون رفت از شرایط کنونی.
با این حال، این به معنی اتمام کار نیست چرا که همانطور در ابتدای مطلب بحث شد، آمریکا هیچگاه ایران را به طور کامل از «حالت آچمزی» خارج نخواهد کرد. تجربه برجام به ما نشان داده است که آمریکا در ازای گرفتن امتیازات مهم، اساسی و متعدد از ایران، به صورت لاک پشت وار به آزادسازی مهره‌های «آچمز شده» ایران می‌پردازد و این کار را نیز با مهره‌های کم ارزش‌تر ایران شروع می‌کند تا همچنان مهره‌های با ارزش ایران را در حالت آچمزی نگه دارد تا برای گرفتن امتیازات بیشتر در مراحل بعدی مناقشات میان دو کشور از آنها استفاده کند. تحت این شرایط ایران نیز باید بطور مداوم به دنبال مهره‌های مهمی باشد تا بتواند در مناقشه‌های آتی با آمریکا از آنها برای بازی در حالت «زوگزوانگ» استفاده کند.
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