کد خبر : 142974
تاریخ انتشار : پنج‌شنبه 9 ژوئن 2022 - 4:23

شمارش معکوس انتخابات پارلمانی فرانسه؛ نظرسنجی‌ها چه می‌گویند؟

شمارش معکوس انتخابات پارلمانی فرانسه؛ نظرسنجی‌ها چه می‌گویند؟

نتایج دو نظرسنجی منتشر شده در روز سه‌شنبه ۱۷ خرداد نشان داد که کسب اکثریت مطلق در انتخابات پارلمانی فرانسه توسط میانه‌روها به رهبری امانوئل ماکرون، رئیس‌جمهور این کشور آن‌چنان هم تضمین شده نیست. امانوئل ماکرون پیش‌تر در ماه آوریل توانسته بود به‌عنوان یک میانه‌رو و طرف‌دار اتحادیه اروپا برای دومین بار در انتخاب ریاست‌جمهوری

نتایج دو نظرسنجی منتشر شده در روز سه‌شنبه ۱۷ خرداد نشان داد که کسب اکثریت مطلق در انتخابات پارلمانی فرانسه توسط میانه‌روها به رهبری امانوئل ماکرون، رئیس‌جمهور این کشور آن‌چنان هم تضمین شده نیست.

امانوئل ماکرون پیش‌تر در ماه آوریل توانسته بود به‌عنوان یک میانه‌رو و طرف‌دار اتحادیه اروپا برای دومین بار در انتخاب ریاست‌جمهوری فرانسه به پیروزی دست یابد.

اما ماکرون برای اینکه بتواند برنامه‌های اصلاحی خود را پیش ببرد نیاز به پشتیبانی اکثریت مجلس دارد که نتایج آن در رأی‌گیری ۱۲ و ۱۹ ژوئن مشخص خواهد شد؛ حال‌آنکه نتایج نظرسنجی‌ها از کاهش حمایت‌ها از میانه‌روها حکایت دارد.

کسب اکثریت مطلق مجلس فرانسه نیاز به ۲۸۹ کرسی دارد، اما بر اساس نظرسنجی مؤسسه «ایفوپ»، حزب «رنسانس» به رهبری ماکرون و سایر احزاب متحد شاید در بهترین حالت  بین۲۵۰ تا۲۹۰ کرسی کسب کند. همین نظرسنجی در هفته گذشته پیش بینی کرده بود که حزب ماکرون و متحدانش بین ۲۷۵ تا ۳۱۰ کرسی به دست خواهد آورد.

نتایج نظرسنجی هریس اینتراکتیو – تولونا که در مجله «چالش‌ها» در روز سه‌شنبه ۱۷ خرداد منتشر شد، پیش‌بینی خوش‌بینانه‌تری داشت و حدود ۲۸۵ تا ۳۳۵ کرسی را برای اردوگاه متحدین ماکرون در نظر گرفت، که باز هم کمینه آن، از میزان اکثریت مطلق کمتر است.

تشکیل کابینه اقلیت یا یک دولت ائتلافی امر چندان رایجی در سیاست امروز فرانسه نبوده و جمهوری پنجم اساساً به‌منظور جلوگیری از همین ائتلاف‌های ناهمجوش طراحی شده بود.

بر طبق این نظرسنجی‌ها، ائتلاف جناح چپ به رهبری ژان لوک ملانشون، از سیاست‌مداران کهنه‌کار چپ تندرو در رتبه دوم قرار دارد، بااین‌وجود اگر اتحاد موسوم به «همه با هم» ماکرون نتواند اکثریت مطلق در مجلس را کسب کند؛ در آن صورت این حزب محافظه‌کار «جمهوری‌خواهان» خواهد بود که در نقش سرنوشت‌ساز یا اصطلاحاً تاج‌بخش ظاهر خواهد شد.

در انتخابات پارلمانی سال ۲۰۱۷ حزب «جمهوری به‌پیش» به رهبری ماکرون به‌تنهایی توانسته بود ۳۱۴ کرسی را از آن خود کند اما به‌تدریج قانون‌گذاران خود را از دست داد و تعداد کرسی هایش اکنون به کمتر از ۲۷۰ رسیده است. ماکرون پس از انتخابات ریاست جمهوری امسال نام حزب «جمهوری به‌پیش» را به حزب «رنسانس» به معنی نوزایی تغییر داد.

این حزب تاکنون تنها به لطف سایر احزاب متحد که جمعاً حدود ۸۰ قانون‌گذار دارند توانسته اکثریت مجلس را برای خود حفظ کند.

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