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کد خبر : 130088
تاریخ انتشار : دوشنبه 19 جولای 2021 - 16:05
ایران بازنده اصلی تعلیق مذاکرات
اثبات نیوز؛ گروه سیاسی: حشمتالله فلاحتپیشه، تحلیلگر مسائل بینالملل در روزنامه آرمان ملی نوشت: واقعیت آن است که اگر به هر دلیلی دور هفتم مذاکرات وین در دولت روحانی پی گرفته نشود و احیای برجام تا زمان روی کار آمدن دولت رئیسی به تعویق بیفتد، بازنده اصلی آن جمهوری اسلامی ایران است. به عبارت صریحتر
اثبات نیوز؛
گروه سیاسی: حشمتالله فلاحتپیشه، تحلیلگر مسائل بینالملل در روزنامه آرمان ملی نوشت: واقعیت آن است که اگر به هر دلیلی دور هفتم مذاکرات وین در دولت روحانی پی گرفته نشود و احیای برجام تا زمان روی کار آمدن دولت رئیسی به تعویق بیفتد، بازنده اصلی آن جمهوری اسلامی ایران است. به عبارت صریحتر بازیگری که بیش از سایر کشورها در سایه به تاخیر افتادن مذاکرات در وین ضرر خواهد کرد، ایران است؛ بهگونهای که حتی اگر دولت رئیسی بهصورت دو فاکتور رسمی مذاکرات وین را عهدهدار شود، باز هم به ضرر ایران است.
چون به قول شما تا اطلاع ثانوی مذاکرات تعطیل، سیاست فشار حداکثری بردوام و تحریمها علیه ملت ماندگار خواهد بود. ضمن اینکه آغاز به کار دولت رئیسی از اواسط مردادماه لزوما به معنای رسیدن به توافق در وین نیست؛ چون باید منتظر ماند و دید که چینش کابینه سیزدهم به چه ترتیب خواهد بود؟ چه فردی برای تصدی کرسی وزارت امور خارجه به مجلس معرفی خواهد شد؟ آیا نمایندگان به وی رای اعتماد خواهند داد یا خیر؟ و هزاران سوال دیگر.
از آن طرف باید ببینیم که وزیر امور خارجه تیم سیاست خارجی را چگونه خواهد چید؟ چه ساختاری برای دستگاه دیپلماسی خود تعریف میکند؟ چه مدت زمانی برای هماهنگی میان این تیمها و کل بدنه جدید وزارت امور خارجه صرف خواهد شد؟ و … . همه این مسائل زمانبر است. لذا به هر میزان که زمان را از دست دهیم به همان میزان از فضای مذاکرت دور خواهیم شد و در عین حال باید در این مدت شاهد تحمل فشار تحریمی از سوی مردم کشور باشیم؛ آن هم در این شرایط که قدرت اقتصادی و معیشتیشان به شدت پایین آمده است. از طرف دیگر نباید فشارهای احتمالی جریانات داخلی مخالف برجام را نادیده گرفت که عملا سعی میکنند مذاکرات وین و احیای برجام را از دستور کار دولت رئیسی خارج کنند.
حتی در غیر این صورت شنیدهها حکایت از آن دارد که تلاشهایی از جانب برخی از جریانها برای انتقال مدیریت مذاکرات وین، احیای برجام و تعیین تکلیف پرونده فعالیت هستهای کشور که در حال حاضر به صورت فنی در اختیار وزارت امور خارجه است به دبیرخانه شورای عالی امنیت ملی در جریان است. پیرو همین نکته اتفاقا اختلاف نظر جدی در دولت رئیسی وجود دارد که تیم مذاکره کننده وی در وین از وزارت امور خارجه باشد یا شورای عالی امنیت ملی.
علاوه بر این اختلافاتی هم درخصوص کم و کیف مدیریت مذاکرات وین در دولت جدید وجود دارد.کشور و ملت ایران بیش از چهار دهه از عمر، سرمایه، هزینه و انرژی خود را فدای تنشهای مختلف منطقهای و فرامنطقهای کرده است که با یک هوش سیاسی و خرد دیپلماتیک میتوانستیم از شکلگیری آن جلوگیری کنیم یا در ادامه با یک مدیریت صحیح این تنشها را به فرصت تبدیل کنیم، اما متاسفانه در داخل کشور برخی جریانها به تنشآفرینی منطقهای و فرامنطقهای افتخار میکنند.
در صورتی که واقعیت آن است در سایه این تنشآفرینیها روزبهروز مردم ایران از آن زندگیای که شایستگی و لیاقت آن را دارند دور و دورتر میشوند و در طرف مقابل فرصتهای طلایی ما توسط همین همسایگان ربوده شده و خواهد شد. باید بپذیریم که هیچ کشوری از تنشزدایی ضرر نکرده است؛ هیچ کشوری از تشدید تنشها بهره نبرده است؟ ضمن اینکه به نظر میرسد هم در داخل و هم در بیرون از کشور سعی میشود چهره متفاوتی از دولت سیدابراهیم رئیسی القا شود که بهدنبال تنشآفرینی است و در سایه این القائات سعی میکنند کسانی در کابینه سیزدهم جایی گیرند که سابقه تنشزایی دارند و برنامهای هم برای تنشزدایی ندارند، اما در این صورت قطعا این تنشزایی کمکی به حل مشکلات اقتصادی کشور نمیکند.
چون به قول شما تا اطلاع ثانوی مذاکرات تعطیل، سیاست فشار حداکثری بردوام و تحریمها علیه ملت ماندگار خواهد بود. ضمن اینکه آغاز به کار دولت رئیسی از اواسط مردادماه لزوما به معنای رسیدن به توافق در وین نیست؛ چون باید منتظر ماند و دید که چینش کابینه سیزدهم به چه ترتیب خواهد بود؟ چه فردی برای تصدی کرسی وزارت امور خارجه به مجلس معرفی خواهد شد؟ آیا نمایندگان به وی رای اعتماد خواهند داد یا خیر؟ و هزاران سوال دیگر.
از آن طرف باید ببینیم که وزیر امور خارجه تیم سیاست خارجی را چگونه خواهد چید؟ چه ساختاری برای دستگاه دیپلماسی خود تعریف میکند؟ چه مدت زمانی برای هماهنگی میان این تیمها و کل بدنه جدید وزارت امور خارجه صرف خواهد شد؟ و … . همه این مسائل زمانبر است. لذا به هر میزان که زمان را از دست دهیم به همان میزان از فضای مذاکرت دور خواهیم شد و در عین حال باید در این مدت شاهد تحمل فشار تحریمی از سوی مردم کشور باشیم؛ آن هم در این شرایط که قدرت اقتصادی و معیشتیشان به شدت پایین آمده است. از طرف دیگر نباید فشارهای احتمالی جریانات داخلی مخالف برجام را نادیده گرفت که عملا سعی میکنند مذاکرات وین و احیای برجام را از دستور کار دولت رئیسی خارج کنند.
حتی در غیر این صورت شنیدهها حکایت از آن دارد که تلاشهایی از جانب برخی از جریانها برای انتقال مدیریت مذاکرات وین، احیای برجام و تعیین تکلیف پرونده فعالیت هستهای کشور که در حال حاضر به صورت فنی در اختیار وزارت امور خارجه است به دبیرخانه شورای عالی امنیت ملی در جریان است. پیرو همین نکته اتفاقا اختلاف نظر جدی در دولت رئیسی وجود دارد که تیم مذاکره کننده وی در وین از وزارت امور خارجه باشد یا شورای عالی امنیت ملی.
علاوه بر این اختلافاتی هم درخصوص کم و کیف مدیریت مذاکرات وین در دولت جدید وجود دارد.کشور و ملت ایران بیش از چهار دهه از عمر، سرمایه، هزینه و انرژی خود را فدای تنشهای مختلف منطقهای و فرامنطقهای کرده است که با یک هوش سیاسی و خرد دیپلماتیک میتوانستیم از شکلگیری آن جلوگیری کنیم یا در ادامه با یک مدیریت صحیح این تنشها را به فرصت تبدیل کنیم، اما متاسفانه در داخل کشور برخی جریانها به تنشآفرینی منطقهای و فرامنطقهای افتخار میکنند.
در صورتی که واقعیت آن است در سایه این تنشآفرینیها روزبهروز مردم ایران از آن زندگیای که شایستگی و لیاقت آن را دارند دور و دورتر میشوند و در طرف مقابل فرصتهای طلایی ما توسط همین همسایگان ربوده شده و خواهد شد. باید بپذیریم که هیچ کشوری از تنشزدایی ضرر نکرده است؛ هیچ کشوری از تشدید تنشها بهره نبرده است؟ ضمن اینکه به نظر میرسد هم در داخل و هم در بیرون از کشور سعی میشود چهره متفاوتی از دولت سیدابراهیم رئیسی القا شود که بهدنبال تنشآفرینی است و در سایه این القائات سعی میکنند کسانی در کابینه سیزدهم جایی گیرند که سابقه تنشزایی دارند و برنامهای هم برای تنشزدایی ندارند، اما در این صورت قطعا این تنشزایی کمکی به حل مشکلات اقتصادی کشور نمیکند.
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