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تعریف مردم از انتخابات معنادار چیست؟

اثبات نیوز؛ گروه سیاسی: احمد شیرزاد فعال سیاسی در روزنامه شرق نوشت: هر انتخاباتی که بسان دربرکردن یک قبای از قبل دوخته باشد، رغبت چندانی را در شهروندان برای مشارکت برنمیانگیزد. انتخاباتی معنادار است که در آن رأیدهندگان احساس کنند واقعا میان دو گزینه یا چند گزینه میتوانند آزادانه دست به انتخاب بزنند. انتخابات دوم
اما چه شد؟ جامعه چنددهمیلیونی ایران واکنشی غیرمنتظره از خود بروز داد و درست به کاندیدایی رأی داد که طراحان نمیتوانستند پیروزی او را در مخیله خود تصور کنند. در انتخابات مجلس دهم در سال ۹۵ نیز مشابه مجالس هفتم، هشتم و نهم، صحنه برای پیروزی مجموعهای از نامزدهای عمدتا راستگرا چیده شده بود. برای رد صلاحیت هر نفر در هر حوزه انتخابی فقط یک دلیل برای ناظران کافی بود؛ امکان رأیآوری او در برابر نامزد مدنظر آنها!
در آن سال اصلاحطلبان و بخش درخور توجهی از بدنه حامی آنها تصمیم گرفتند از میان مجموعه نامزدهای تأییدصلاحیتشده موجود به هر حال لیست ببندند و فعالانه وارد صحنه شوند. نتیجهاش شد کسب حدود نیمی از کرسیهای مجلس دهم از سوی لیست امید، حذف همه ۳۰ کاندیدای ائتلاف راستگرایان در تهران، تشکیل مجلسی که اگر خاصیت چندانی نداشت ولی لااقل از دو، سه مجلس قبل از خود و از مجلس بعدی خود بسیار کمضررتر بود و بالاخره طیشدن دورهای نسبتا آرام در فضای پارلمانی کشور. به موازات مجلس شورای اسلامی، در انتخابات خبرگان آن سال، همراهی مردم با ندای «تکرار میکنم» و طراحی هوشمندانه مرحوم هاشمیرفسنجانی منجر به حذف چهرههای کلیدی نظیر آقایان مصباح و یزدی از مجلس خبرگان شد و آقای احمد جنتی در انتهای لیست برگزیدگان تهران جای گرفت.
در همان انتخابات شنیدیم که در برخی استانها مردم حاضر شدند به روحانیون جوان و بینامونشان رأی دهند. این دو نمونه نشان میدهد جامعه ایران آمادگی دارد که قبای از قبل دوختهشده را پس زده و برنامه از پیش ریختهشده را در کمال شگفتی برهم زند. ممکن است سؤال شود که چرا این پدیده تا قبل از خرداد ۷۶ رخ نمیداد؟ روشن است؛ در یکی، دو دهه اول انقلاب جامعه حساسیت چندانی به تصمیمات مقامات نداشت و آنچه از سوی آنان مقرر میشد از طرف اکثریت جامعه خیر و صلاح شمرده میشد.
هرچند پدیده ردصلاحیتهای جناحی از مجلس چهارم کلید خورد و در مجلس پنجم شتاب گرفت، اما تا رسیدن به روند ردصلاحیتهای گسترده در انتخابات مجلس و ریاستجمهوری هنوز فاصله زیادی وجود داشت. در دوران پیشااصلاحات، لااقل برای انتخابات ریاستجمهوری، جامعه به توافقی که در سطح بزرگان نظام صورت میگرفت که چه کسی جلو بیاید، احترام میگذاشت و با آن چندان تعارضی حس نمیکرد.
اکنون فرصت بسیار محدودی تا انتخابات باقی است. اصولا سناریوی انتخابات بهگونهای است که چندان مجالی برای سیاستورزی سیاستپیشگان باقی نمیماند. در چنین شرایطی کنشگران فقط میتوانند در مدت محدود و بین گزینههای موجود دست به تصمیم بزنند. بهزعم نگارنده، مأیوس و عصبانیکردن بخشی از نیروهای سیاسی و تأثیرگذاران بر جامعه نیز بخشی از سناریو است. تجربه سال ۹۲ در انتخابات ریاستجمهوری را به یاد بیاوریم؛ ردصلاحیت آیتالله فقید هاشمیرفسنجانی، یک هدفش کنارگذاشتن او بود، اما هدف دیگرش آچمزکردن و ازنفسانداختن تحولخواهان جامعه با یک قدرتنمایی دور از انتظار بود. اما در همان سال دیری نگذشت که توفان جدیدی برپا شد.در آن شرایط یأس و سرخوردگی، دستگذاشتن روی گزینه دور از انتظار (روحانی) و اعمال مدیریت رهبران اصلاحطلب در کناررفتن دکتر عارف، شرایطی را رقم زد که کسی فکرش را نمیکرد. لحن انتقامجویانه راستگرایان تندرو در این روزها علیه رئیسجمهور و دولت، نشاندهنده شدت خشم هشتساله از شکستهای ۹۲ و ۹۶ است. اکنون چه راهکاری برای پسزدن قبای دوخته میتوان در پیش گرفت؟
کنار کشیدن از عرصه انتخابات و نادیده گرفتن گزینههای موجود، درست آنچیزی است که جریان مقابل میخواهد. من بر این گمانم که آنها دقیقا روی این فرایند حساب کردهاند. هرچه مشارکت پایینتر، امکان کسب آرا برای کاندیدای مدنظر بیشتر. با فرض حدود ۵۹ میلیون ایرانی واجد شرایط رأیدادن در این دوره، یک مشارکت ۴۰ درصدی با حضور ۲۳ میلیون رأیدهنده ایدئال جریان مقابل است و هرچه مشارکت از این کمتر شود، کار آسانتر خواهد بود. بعد هم بابت مشارکت پایین به قول آقای جنتی «یک چندهفتهای روزنامهها انتقاداتی مینویسند و تمام میشود، اما چهار سال جانمان (جانشان) راحت است»!
اما در یک انتخابات با مشارکت ۵۵ تا ۶۰ درصد، تعداد شرکتکنندگان به ۳۲ تا ۳۵ میلیون نفر میرسد و جریان انتخابات عوض میشود. اگر انتخابات به دور دوم کشیده شود، پنجرههای جدیدی باز خواهد شد. شاید آنچه اتفاق افتاده یک لطف الهی است تا بار دیگر ملت ایران شگفتی بیافریند. دو کاندیدایی که خارج از جریان اصولگرا در دور انتخابات و تبلیغات انتخاباتی قرار گرفتهاند، تنها شانس ما برای برهمزدن برنامه اصولگرایان است. اگر فضا به سمت حمایت از آنها پیش برود، دور از تصور نیست که بتوان روی یکی از آنها نیز اجماع کرد و صحنه را به گونه دیگری رقم زد. امیدوارم.
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