کد خبر : 146465
تاریخ انتشار : چهارشنبه 10 آگوست 2022 - 4:22

از کارتر تا بایدن؛ چقدر تجربه شوک نفتی-تورمی دهه ۱۹۷۰ به درد امروز می‌خورد؟

از کارتر تا بایدن؛ چقدر تجربه شوک نفتی-تورمی دهه ۱۹۷۰ به درد امروز می‌خورد؟

این روزها دهه ۱۹۷۰ به یک مبدا تاریخی برای مقایسه برخی تحولات اقتصادی سال ۲۰۲۲ میلادی از افزایش قیمت نفت و بنزین گرفته تا جهش تورم در کشورهای غربی به ویژه در ایالات متحده بدل شده است. اما شرایط فعلی اقتصاد تا چه حد شبیه آن دهه است و از تجربه سیاستگذاری دولت‌ها در آن

این روزها دهه ۱۹۷۰ به یک مبدا تاریخی برای مقایسه برخی تحولات اقتصادی سال ۲۰۲۲ میلادی از افزایش قیمت نفت و بنزین گرفته تا جهش تورم در کشورهای غربی به ویژه در ایالات متحده بدل شده است. اما شرایط فعلی اقتصاد تا چه حد شبیه آن دهه است و از تجربه سیاستگذاری دولت‌ها در آن دوران چه استفاده‌ای می‌توان کرد؟

دهه ۱۹۷۰ یادآور صف‌های طولانی مقابل پمپ بنزین‌هاست. اما اکنون هیچ صفی وجود ندارد و کمتر سیاستمدار غربی از جمله رئیس‌جمهوری ایالات متحده جرات می‌کند به مردم توصیه کند که برای کاهش مصرف بنزین با سرعت کمتری رانندگی کنند. اما در پی جهش قیمت انرژی، تورم به بالاترین سطح در چهار دهه اخیر رسیده ولی در مقابل سود شرکت‌های نفتی بالا رفته است. سیاستمداران هم در مورد نقشی که دولت‌ها باید در کاهش قیمت‌ها ایفا کند، اختلاف نظر دارند.

مِگ جیکوبز، مورخ آمریکایی شاغل در دانشگاه پرینستون، در سال ۲۰۱۷ کتابی با عنوان «هراس در پمپ[بنزین]ها» (Panic at the Pump) منتشر کرد که به روایت دهه ۱۹۷۰ می‌پرداخت. کتابی که اکنون نیاز به بازخوانی آن احساس می‌شود. 

تورم در دهه ۱۹۷۰ پس از وقوع شوک‌های نفتی روند فزاینده‌ای به خود گرفت. شوک اول نفتی در سال ۱۹۷۳ و در پی جنگ اعراب و اسرائیل رخ داد. کشورهای عربی به رهبری عربستان سعودی ارسال محموله­‌های نفتی را به کشورهای غربی حامی اسرائیل از جمله ایالات متحده و بریتانیا متوقف کردند. اقدامی که منجر به ۴ برابر شدن بهای نفت شد. در اواخر این دهه نیز پس از وقوع انقلاب ایران عرضه نفت کاهش یافت. 

بنابراین، افزایش این روزهای قیمت نفت پس از تهاجم نظامی روسیه به اوکراین شرایط را شبیه دهه ۱۹۷۰ کرده ولی خانم جیکوبز در گفتگو با بلومبرگ توضیح می‌دهد که فراتر از تطبیق سطحی این دو دوره تاریخی، تفاوت‌های جدی در مورد دلایل جهش نرخ تورم در اقتصاد آمریکا وجود دارد. او برای نشان دادن این تفاوت‌ها به تاثیر نحوه تامین مالی جنگ ویتنام و تبعات همه‌گیری ویروس کرونا اشاره می‌کند. 

مورخ آمریکایی همچنین در کتاب خود نشان داده که که ابزارهایی که رؤسای جمهوری همچون ریچارد نیکسون و جیمی کارتر برای مهار افزایش قیمت بنزین به کار بردند تا حد زیادی نتیجه معکوس داشت؛ سیاست‌هایی که سه دهه قبل و در طول جنگ جهانی دوم کارآیی خوبی داشتند.

او در توضیح این اختلاف عملکرد می‌گوید: «دلیل اینکه سیاست‌های کنترل‌ قیمت در دوره جنگ جهانی دوم بسیار محبوب بودند، این بود که آمریکایی‌ها بر این باور بودند که این کنترل‌ها همان چیزی است که فرانکلین روزولت از آن به عنوان «برابری در فداکاری» یاد می‌کرد. بنابراین کوپن‌ها تضمینی بود که مثلا شما به قصابی بروید و گوشت بخرید و مردم دقیقا می‌دانستید که در ازای آن چه چیزی دریافت می‌کنند.»

خانم جیکوبز می‌افزاید: «اما در دوران نیکسون، به جای توزیع کوپن سیاست جیره‌بندی اجرا شد که به اعتقاد من سیاستی ناکارآمدی است و شکست آن قطعی است. چرا که در مقایسه با توزیع کوپن که در دهه ۱۹۴۰ رایج بود، زمینه نارضایتی عمومی بیشتری را ایجاد می‌کرد و تنها راه حل برای دسترسی به اقلامی مانند بنزین این بود که مردم در صف‌های طولانی پمپ بنزین‌ها بایستند که تضمینی هم برای خرید کافی و به موقع وجود نداشت. بنابراین، به ویژه پس از شوک نفتی دوران کارتر در سال ۱۹۷۹، اعتماد عمومی به این سیاست مبارزه با تورم از میان رفت.»

به اینستاگرام یورونیوز فارسی بپیوندید

این مورخ آمریکایی همچنین در کتاب خود خاطر نشان کرده که سیاست‌گذاری در بخش انرژی تا چه حد از نظر سیاسی می‌تواند تفرقه‌انگیز باشد؛ تفرقه‌ای که نه تنها بین احزاب مخالف رخ می‌دهد بلکه در میان سیاستمداران حزب حاکم نیز شکاف ایجاد می‌کند.

او در مورد بازتاب امروزی این شکاف و تفرقه نیز توضیح می‌دهد: «گَوین نیوسام، فرماندار کالیفرنیا، برای مقابله با تورم به دنبال کاهش شدید هزینه‌ها در این ایالت است که قطعا با مخالفت‌هایی مواجه خواهد شد.ایده لغو مالیات بر گاز که جو بایدن مطرح کرده نیز مخالفانی دارد که استدلال می‌کنند این اقدام تنها به تورم دامن می‌زند. جو بایدن همچنین به دنبال تولید بیشتر نفت و فرآورده‌های نفتی است اما آنچه صنعت نفت واقعا به آن نیاز دارد، ثبات بیشتر بازار و آرامش در آن است.» 

خانم جیکوبز در ارزیابی ایده‌های مطرح شده برای مهار افزایش قیمت نفت، ایده مطرح شده در نشست اخیر گروه هفت درباره تشکیل کارتل خریداران به عنوان راهی برای محدود کردن درآمد روسیه از صادرات نفت را، ایده‌ای می‌داند که شانس تضمین سطح مشخصی از ثبات قیمت‌ها را دارد.

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