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سید قدرت و ابهامات پیش رو..

اثبات نیوز؛ سید قدرت و ابهامات پیش رو.. یعقوب درویشیان؛ رد اعتبارنامه ی غلامرضاتاجگردون و حذف ایشان از مجلس باعث شده تا نگاه ها به انتخابات میاندوره ای حوزه ی گچساران و باشت، نگاه هائی فرا استانی باشد و انتخابات این حوزه ی انتخاباتی در سطح ملی رصد شود. آنچه تاکنون
سید قدرت و ابهامات پیش رو..
یعقوب درویشیان؛
رد اعتبارنامه ی غلامرضاتاجگردون و حذف ایشان از مجلس باعث شده تا نگاه ها به انتخابات میاندوره ای حوزه ی گچساران و باشت، نگاه هائی فرا استانی باشد و انتخابات این حوزه ی انتخاباتی در سطح ملی رصد شود. آنچه تاکنون مورد توجه تحلیل گران و مفسران دنیای سیاست بوده، رقابت تاجگردون ها با سایر رقبا یشان می باشد. از مدت ها قبل ، سید قدرت الله حسینی بحرینی را به عنوان رقیب جدی برادران تاجگردون محسوب کرده اند که این مهم خود باعث شده تا سایر رقبا در سایه قرار بگیرند. آنچه تاکنون واضح می نماید پلان های مختلف سید قدرت برای زورآزمائی با تاجگردون میباشد که از آغاز تبلیغات انتخابات سال ۹۸ نشان داد که سید قدرت با برنامه وارد این دوره از انتخابات شده است. سخنان سید قدرت در خیرآباد و در برخی مجامع و محافل که با اقتدار بیان میکرد تاجگردون مجلس را نخواهد دید در ابتدا نوعی بلوف وشعار انتخاباتی محسوب میشد و حتی بعداز قبولی غلامرضا تاجگردون باز هم سید قدرت از حذف تاجگردون سخن میگفت که پذیرش این موضوع برای جامعه غیر قابل باور بود تا در پلان های بعد بحث اعتبار نامه و دفاع و تصمیم سایر نمایندگان در مورد اعتبار نامه ی تاجگردون کاملا مشهود کرد که سید قدرت با برنامه ای مدون وارد میدان شده است. این روزها اما برخی ثبت نام ها و تحلیل ها گویای اتفاقات جدیدی است که احتمالا خارج از تصمیمات و برنامه ریزی های قبلی سید قدرت و حامیان ایشان میباشد.
در این روزها ثبت نام برخی چهره های نزدیک به سید قدرت نشان میدهد که اگر احتمال اختلاف هم در میان نباشد و اگرجانب احتیاط برای رد صلاحیت ها در نظر گرفته شده باشد حتما پلان جدیدی در ثبت نام نزدیکان سید مورد نظر تیم سید می باشد که آنقدر خود را قدرتمند می بینند که در یک میان دوره ای دنبال سه کرسی در دو حوزه میباشند. البته ثبت نام اَبرلیدر سیدقدرت شبهاتی را رقم زده است از آن جمله: اگر قرار باشد سیدقدرت رد صلاحیت بشود یا محض احتیاط از کاندیدای پوششی استفاده نماید، مگر برادرش سیدناصر ثبت نام نکرده است پس لزوم ثبت نام مهندس پاکدل چیست،؟ اگر سید قدرت رد صلاحیت بشود و سیدناصر در تهران بماند و یا به دلایل دیگر به استان نیایند؛ آیا جریان اصولگرا حاضر میشود تخم مرغ هایش را درسبد مهندس پاکدل هزینه نماید؟ اگر سید قدرت رد صلاحیت شود و سید ناصر هم به گچساران بیاید و در صورت تائید صلاحیت مهندس پاکدل؛ اگر آقای پاکدل حاضر به کناره گیری نشود تکلیف چیست؟ اصلا و اصولا چرا سید قدرت میخواهد از دو کاندید پوششی بهره ببرد؟ آیا میانه ی سید قدرت و پاکدل شکر آب شده است؟ اگر همه ی این افراد تائید صلاحیت بشوند پاکدل چه راهی را در پیش میگیرد،؟ در تهران می ماند؟ اگر بماند با کدامین پشتوانه و اگر بخواهد انصراف بدهد که کاملا غیر اخلاقی و هدر دادن وقت و سرمایه های بیت المال و گرفتن فرصت حضور سایرین بوده و در درگاه خلق و خدا و خود پاسخگو خواهد بود. آیا سید قدرت در تائید صلاحیت خویش دچار تردید شده است؟البته سید قدرت ابهامات و چالش هایی در پیش رو دارد از جمله: بیماری کرونا و محدودیت های مصوبه جهت دیدارهای مردمی، ثبت نام برخی از چهره ها و افراد جهت حضور در انتخابات شوراهای شهر و روستا که باعث پرداختن بخشی از جامعه به این انتخابات و انتخاب ریاست جمهوری خواهد شد و جامعه شور و پتانسیل صد در صد خود را جهت انتخابات میان دوره ای هزینه نخواهد کرد. محدود بودن نشست های انتخاباتی که مبارزه و رقابت را به عرصه ی فضای مجازی کشانیده است و برخی افراد به صورت خود جوش برای سید تبلیغ می کنند اما رقبا در فضای مجازی خیلی با برنامه تر حضور دارند.
توجه به رد اعتبارنامه ی تاجگردون باعث شده تا برخی ها که در گذشته هیچ شوری جهت حضور در انتخابات نداشته اند در این میان دوره ای جهت اثبات حقانیت تاجگردون و صیانت از آرای خود در این میاندوره ای با قاطعیت وغیرت خاصی به میدان بیایند و هدفشان انتقام از مخالفان تاجگردون خواهد بود که هدف اصلی سید قدرت میباشد.
تنش های درون جریانی: اصولگرایان که هنوز نتوانسته اند به وحدت برسند و متاسفانه در رفتاری غیر منطقی به دو حوزه ی باوی و بویراحمد با نگاه قومیتی و جغرافیائی نگریسته و انشقاق اصولگرایان در حمایت از سید قدرت و جعفری کاملا در این جریان مشهود میباشد که این موضوع بیشترین خسارت را به سبد سید قدرت خواهد زد.
حضور رقبای مستقل نیز از دردسرهای بزرگی هست که سید قدرت در پیش رو خواهد داشت و حضور چهره هائی از سه قومیت باوی و بویراحمد و قشقائی در انتخابات باعث خواهد شد تا تفکر تجمیع آرا در سبد سید قدرت محقق نشود و رقبای دیگر نیز شانس بالایی در رابطه با فراوانی رای در سبد خویش خواهند بود.
اما مهم ترین موضوع عملکرد چشم گیر تاجگردون در حوزه های عمرانی و خدماتی و کشاورزی و صنعتی و بافت فرسوده و …میباشد که نشان داد تاجگردون، جایگاه پائین شهرستان و مردم را به جایگاه متوسط روبه بالائی کشانید که این موضوع باعث بالا رفتن توقعات مردم از نماینده ی بعدی شده است و تعطیلی دو ساله ی طرح های شهرستان های گچساران و باشت ، همت بالایی را می طلبد تا این پروژه های به کما رفته را احیا کنند و در مجموع عملکرد تاجگردون بزرگترین رقیب برای کاندیداتورهای حاضر در انتخابات و خصوصا سید قدرت میباشد. البته برخی از احتمالات را در این مقال نیاورده ایم و منتظر تائید صلاحیت نهائی کاندیداتورها خواهیم نشست تا با یقین بیشتر بتوانیم پلان های سید قدرت و رقبا را آنالیز کنیم.
یعقوب درویشیان. نازمکان.
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