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اثبات نیوز؛ گروه سیاسی:روزناه شرق نوشت: اصلاحطلبان در شرایط کنونی از یک سو سرمایه اجتماعی گذشته خود را ندارند و از سوی دیگر تمام پایگاههای خود در قدرت رسمی را از دست دادهاند تا این نگرانی وجود داشته باشد که آیا آنها در آینده سیاسی کشور جایگاهی نخواهند داشت؟ شاید بتوان پاسخ به این پرسش
نیروهای جناح چپ در سال ۷۶ در رقابت با راستگرایان امید چندانی به پیروزی نداشتند؛ تا حدی که گفته میشود هیچیک از اصلاحطلبان کنونی تصور پیروزی خاتمی را هم در ذهن نداشتند. برای مثال بهزاد نبوی در سال ۹۸ گفت: «جنبش اصلاحات برنامهای از پیش تعیینشده نداشت و هنگامی که آقای خاتمی نامزد انتخابات ریاستجمهوری شد، نیروهای چپ که بعدها با نام اصلاحطلب مطرح شدند، تصورشان صرفا این بود که او میتواند نقش نماینده جناح چپ را ایفا کند تا این جناح از عرصه سیاست خارج نشود و هیچکس تصور نمیکرد آقای خاتمی رئیسجمهور شود».
او حتی میگفت: «پس از پیروزی در انتخابات، آرامآرام شعارهای اصلاحگرایانه بیشتری از زبان آقای خاتمی مطرح شد. حتی در اوایل کار، ما به شوخی میگفتیم این اصلاحات و جامعه مدنی که آقای خاتمی از آن سخن میگوید، یعنی چه؟ اما بعدها به تدریج جریان چپ با نام اصلاحات معروف شد که البته خلاف واقع هم نبود؛ زیرا سخنان و رویکرد آقای خاتمی سراسر مبتنی بر اصلاح درونساختاری بود. شعارهایی که در آن زمان داده میشد، مواضع رایج جریان چپ نبود و حتی گاهی نیروهای چپ نیز شعار آقای خاتمی را نقد میکردند؛ زیرا دغدغه غالب چپهای آن روز، اقتصادی بود».
حالا عباس عبدی نیز در گفتگو با «خبرآنلاین» روایتی مشابه دارد و میگوید: «قبل از دوم خرداد، جناح چپ که بعدها به نام اصلاحطلبان مشهور شدند، در جلساتی که با آقای خاتمی داشتند، تصور میکردند در صورت حضور در انتخابات سه تا چهار میلیون رأی خواهند آورد. این نشان نمیدهد که دوم خرداد تصادفی و شانسی بوده، بلکه نشاندهنده این است که نهفقط حکومت بلکه ما هم جامعه را نمیشناختیم. فکر میکردیم انتخابات فقط فرصت خوبی برای حضور سیاسی است».
با این اوصاف باید یک پرسش اساسی را مطرح کرد؛ آنکه چرا ناطقنوری شکست خورد؟ به بیان دیگر برخلاف تصور قریب به اتفاق سیاسیون، چه شد که ناگهان اکثریت مردم از قطب مهمی همچون هاشمی رویگردان شدند و به سمت یک نیروی تحولخواه گرایش پیدا کردند؟
به نظر میرسد جامعه خسته از محدودیتهای دوران جنگ و بستهبودن فضای فرهنگی بعد از جنگ، دیگر نه شعارهای ابتدای انقلاب اقناعش میکرد و نه رویکردهای توسعه اقتصادی هاشمی که همه چیز را در اقتصاد خلاصه میکرد، میتوانست پاسخگوی خواستههای آن باشد؛ به همین دلیل بود که خاتمی که قدری شعارها و البته ظاهری متفاوت داشت، مورد اقبال مردم قرار گرفت و بهنوعی میتوان گفت این جامعه بود که خاتمی را به سمت اصلاحات پیش برد و اندیشهای خاص در میان نیروهای جناح چپ برای ایجاد تغییر وجود نداشت.
در این بین، برخی باور دارند هاشمی نیز در روی کار آمدن خاتمی بیتأثیر نبود؛ خاصه سخنرانی نماز جمعه او پیش از انتخابات که بهنوعی با مطرحکردن ضرورت سلامت انتخابات، خواسته بود نزدیکی خود به خاتمی را اعلام کند که البته این گزاره محدود شاید در برابر رأی سلبی مردم به وضع موجود، محلی از اعراب نداشته باشد؛ چراکه از قضا میل به اصلاح و جستن این خاستگاه در خاتمی بهعنوان نماینده اندیشه اصلاحی در حوزه سیاسی، برآمده از شرایطی بود که در دوران اکبر هاشمیرفسنجانی پدید آمده بود.
البته بر سر کیفیت دوران هاشمی بحثهای بسیاری وجود دارد و شاید کمتر کسی باشد که بتواند تلاشها برای امر توسعه در دوران هاشمی را انکار کند؛ اما به هر رو، رأی مردم به خاتمی، حکایت از «نه» به رویکرد راستگرایان داشت و این موضوع در انتخابات مجلس ششم نیز به چشم میخورد که هاشمی نفر آخر نمایندگان تهران میشود و به خواست خودش از نمایندگی انصراف میدهد.
در این بین، رویکرد اصلاحطلبان، بهویژه حزب مشارکت، در نفی هاشمی و حتی با رویکردی تندتر تخریب هاشمی نیز محل نقد است؛ زیرا همین رویکرد سلبی در مواجهه با هاشمی که حالا نزدیک به اصلاحطلبان شده بود، بعدها برای اصلاحطلبان گران تمام شد و شاید بیرونآمدن محمود احمدینژاد از صندوق رأی در سال ۸۴، برآمده از گستردهبودن چنین جدالهایی بود. به هر حال، هرچه بود حتما نمیتوان حمایت هاشمی، آنهم به واسطه یک سخنرانی پیش از انتخابات سال ۷۶ را دلیل توفیق انتخاباتی خاتمی دانست.
عبدی در ادامه گفتوگویش با «خبرآنلاین» به این موضوع اشاره میکند: «ایشان (هاشمی) که به آقای ناطقنوری رأی داد، چگونه به اصلاحطلبان و آقای خاتمی کمک میکند؟ اینکه سخنان ایشان به پیروزی اصلاحطلبان کمک کرده باشد و اصولگرایان به این موضع منتقد باشند، تحلیل دیگری دارد. بنا بر قول شخص آقای هاشمی، وی در حال رفتن به نماز جمعه بودند که رئیس وقت بسیج کشور در وسط راه با ایشان تماس گرفته و میگوید عدهای میخواهند در انتخابات تقلب کنند. دراینباره تذکری بدهید خوب است. آن آقا اصلا اصولگرا و آن طرفی بود که از آقای هاشمی خواستند این را مطرح کنند.
آقای هاشمی هم گفتند، چون او این حرف را زد، من هم تذکر دادم. یعنی بر اساس ادعای آنطرفیها، این سخن را گفت. اما چرا این تعبیر به نفع آقای خاتمی شد؟… وقتی آقای هاشمی گفتند من به آقای ناطقنوری رأی دادم و حتی بیان کردند که به چه دلیل خطر و احتمال تقلب در انتخابات را گفتند، من نمیدانم چرا باید اینطور برداشت کنیم که این سخنان را آگاهانه در جهت حمایت از آقای خاتمی بیان کردند؟
البته آقای هاشمی به دلیل فاصلهای که اصولگرایان از او گرفته بودند، از آنان ناامید بود. اگر به خاطرات ایشان نگاه کنید، کار و اقدامی جدی برای روی کار آمدن آقای خاتمی انجام نداده بودند».
برسیم به شرایط کنونی؛ اکنون مانند سال ۷۶ باز هم اصلاحطلبان استراتژی خاصی برای آینده ندارند و اگر در آن سال نیروهای چپ خط امامی نمیدانستند قرار است به نیروهای اصلاحطلب تبدیل شوند و هشت سال دولت را در اختیار داشته باشند و همزمان چهار سال مجلس را هم به دست بگیرند، اکنون هم آینده برای اصلاحطلبان مبهم است.
البته یک تفاوت مهم در این بین وجود دارد. آن زمان اصلاحطلبان با رویکردهای تازه خود هنوز محدودیتهای کنونی را نداشتند، ازجمله آنکه هنوز سرمایه اجتماعی برآمده تحولخواه که پشت نیروهای چپ ایستاده بود، آنها را متمایز از تصمیمسازان هسته اصلی قدرت در جناح راست تلقی میکرد و تصور این بود که اصلاحطلبان توان اصلاحات سیاسی و فرهنگی را دارند که البته تلاشهایی هم بهویژه در مجلس ششم و دوره اول خاتمی در این زمینه شد.
این اعتماد تا سال ۹۲ نیز با اصلاحطلبان همراه بود و حتی مردم بدون هیچ پرسشی به تصمیم تشکیلاتی اصلاحطلبان مبنی بر حمایت از یک نیروی غیراصلاحطلب پاسخ مثبت دادند؛ تا آنکه اصلاحطلبان به دلیل سکوت خود و البته عملکرد نهچندان قابل دفاع دولت مورد حمایتشان، قدری ازسوی سرمایه اجتماعی خود طرد شدند.
دومین محدودیتی که اصلاحطلبان در سال ۷۶ با آن مواجه نبودند، نوع برخورد نهادهای نظارتی است. آن زمان هنوز رد صلاحیت به شکل کنونی نبود تا آنکه اصلاحطلبان طعم ردصلاحیتهای گسترده را در انتخابات مجلس هفتم حس کردند و این چالش تا به امروز نیز با آنان همراه است.
شاید بتوان یک وجه مشترک دیگر نیز میان این روزهای اصلاحطلبان با شرایطشان در سال ۷۶ پیدا کرد؛ آنکه ممکن است نوع عملکرد اصولگرایان، چه در دولت و چه در مجلس، باز هم مردم را به سمت «نه» به شرایط موجود ببرد که باید دید در آن شرایط اصلاحطلبان همچنان میتوانند آلترناتیو جامعه محسوب شوند؟ حتما پاسخ به این پرسش مهمترین چالش این روزهای نیروهایی است که روزگاری باعث شکست ناطقنوری شدند.
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