کد خبر : 133881
تاریخ انتشار : جمعه 15 اکتبر 2021 - 19:22

رمزگشایی از تحولات جدید مذاکرات هسته‌ای

رمزگشایی از تحولات جدید مذاکرات هسته‌ای

اثبات نیوز؛ گروه سیاسی:روزنامه شرق نوشت: مصاحبه اخیر آقای خطیب‌زاده، سخنگوی وزارت خارجه، حاوی نکته‌ای مهم بود و آن اینکه ایشان دوشنبه مؤکدا تأکید کرد که «مذاکرات برای تبعیت همه از برجام است و قرار نیست متن جدیدی و توافق جدیدی مذاکره بشود». این تأکید مؤکد اگر بازتاب نظرات دولت سیزدهم باشد که قاعدتا باید

اثبات نیوز؛

گروه سیاسی:روزنامه شرق نوشت: مصاحبه اخیر آقای خطیب‌زاده، سخنگوی وزارت خارجه، حاوی نکته‌ای مهم بود و آن اینکه ایشان دوشنبه مؤکدا تأکید کرد که «مذاکرات برای تبعیت همه از برجام است و قرار نیست متن جدیدی و توافق جدیدی مذاکره بشود». این تأکید مؤکد اگر بازتاب نظرات دولت سیزدهم باشد که قاعدتا باید چنین باشد، از چند جهت حائز اهمیت است: اول اینکه برجام مورد قبول دولت سیزدهم بوده و قرار است همین که هست حفظ و احیا شود و همه طرف‌ها از آن تبعیت کنند.
دوم اینکه «تبعیت همه از برجام» معلوم نیست با «قانون اقدام راهبری برای لغو تحریم‌ها» سازگار باشد؛ چراکه در بند ۷ این قانون از «رفع کامل تحریم‌ها ازجمله هسته‌ای، نظامی، حقوق‌بشری و امثال آن» سخن رفته است. درحالی‌که می‌دانیم برجام تنها قرار بود ناظر بر رفع تحریم‌های مرتبط با برنامه هسته‌ای ایران باشد. سوم اینکه اگر قرار بر حفظ همین برجام موجود باشد، معنی آن می‌تواند این باشد که رویه‌ای که طی شش دور مذاکرات در بهار گذشته در وین مبنای کار بود، رویه درستی بوده و قرار نیست رویه متفاوتی مبنای کار قرار گیرد.
در این صورت می‌توان احتمال داد که مذاکرات به نحو سابق ادامه خواهد یافت و دور بعدی دور هفتم خواهد بود و «یک پلتفرم جدید» قرار نیست مبنای کار قرار گیرد. در چنین صورتی، مذاکرات از نقطه‌ای که متوقف شد از سر گرفته خواهد شد و در این صورت امکان تسریع در کار وجود خواهد داشت. در این صورت، توپ در زمین آمریکا خواهد بود تا نیات واقعی خود را آشکار کند و نشان دهد آیا واقعا به گونه‌ای مثبت و سازنده و بدون طرح مسائل نامربوط حاضر به پیشبرد کار خواهد بود یا خیر. البته اظهارات مقامات ما هنوز عاری از تناقض نیست.
مثلا این سخن روز سه‌شنبه آقای خطیب‌زاده مبنی‌بر تأکید ایران بر رفع «تمامی تحریم‌ها» و «اخذ تضمین» در این رابطه با سخن روز دوشنبه ایشان در مورد احیای برجام موجود هماهنگ نیست. مسئله مهم دیگر در مورد اینکه «توافق جدیدی» در دستور کار نیست، برمی‌گردد به قانون INARA، یعنی «قانون بررسی توافق هسته‌ای با ایران» که در مارس ۲۰۱۵ با محوریت عناصر ضد ایرانی در کنگره آمریکا تصویب شد و دولت آمریکا را ملزم به ارائه هر توافقی با ایران به کنگره به‌منظور بررسی با امکان «رد» آن توسط کنگره کرد.
در جریان یک رأی‌گیری رویه‌ای در سپتامبر ۲۰۱۵ مشخص شد که همه ۵۴ سناتور جمهوری‌خواه به اضافه چهار سناتور دموکرات با برجام مخالف‌اند و، چون جمهوری‌خواهان نتوانستند از سد فیلی‌باستر (آبستراکسیون) بگذرند و مهم‌تر، چون نتوانستند به حد نصاب ۶۴ رأی برای وتوی مخالفت رئیس‌جمهور با مصوبه احتمالی علیه برجام برسند، از INARA کاری برنیامد و تنها در این مرحله بود که برجام برای دولت آمریکا نهایی شد.در غیر این صورت برجام می‌توانست از اساس شکل نگیرد. اکنون، چون INARA همچنان معتبر است، بحث بر سر این است که آیا هرگونه توافقی در وین باید در چارچوب آن قانون به کنگره ارسال شود یا خیر.
دولت و اکثر دموکرات‌های کنگره می‌گویند که اگر همان برجام قبلی عینا احیا شود، نیازی به ارسال توافق به کنگره نخواهد بود. اما شماری از جمهوری‌خواهان و فعالان دست‌راستی مدعی‌اند که در هر صورت توافق احتمالی در وین باید برای بررسی به کنگره ارسال شود. با این حال، اگر تغییری هرچند اندک در توافق برجام وارد شود، بعید است دولت بایدن بتواند از تقدیم آن به کنگره شانه خالی کند.تحول مهم دیگر در روز‌های گذشته، حدس و گمان‌هایی است که درمورد تیم مذاکره‌کننده ایران مطرح است. در این مورد شاید اظهارات آقای دکتر امیر‌عبداللهیان تکلیف را روشن کرده باشد. ایشان گفته است: «تیمی که در وزارت خارجه این موضوع را دنبال خواهد کرد با مدیریت معاونت سیاسی وزارت امور خارجه و با مسئولیت مستقیم وزیر امور خارجه خواهد بود».
این سخن می‌تواند به این معنی باشد که اولا امور برجام در وزارت خارجه ماندنی است و ثانیا ظاهرا آقای باقری کنی رئیس تیم جدید خواهد بود. با توجه به ماهیت فنی و حقوقی مذاکرات، امید است از نفرات و تجربیات تیم قبلی، به‌ویژه آقای عراقچی، در مذاکرات پیش‌رو که به خاطر حفظ منافع ملی برخوردی ملی و فراجناحی با آن لازم است، استفاده بشود.

 

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